predictions

[Karen G. Schneider]

Hmmmm...

Wireless, for sure.  I suspect Tom Dowling may be right about public access
computing.  For the next ten to twenty years, we will still offer public
computing, but increasingly it will be used only by the most destitute of
the have-nots, since everyone else will have wireless Internet appliances.
Instructional labs in libraries will only remain popular if they offer
instruction in things people don't know and teach it better than people
could teach themselves.

However... it is possible new technologies will arise that provide new
opportunities for libraries to offer public access.

In the world of dead-tree technology, public-library circulation for
nonfiction books will continue to plummet.  Circulation for fiction will
vary according to how well libraries market their holdings to their
customers.  Some services, such as children's programming, musical events
and so forth will continue to be popular in selected  communities.

E-books will be hindered by publishers, technology, and the strong
sentimental attachment to the paper-based book, but within twenty
years--part of me wants to say ten--we will have a booklike device that
people prefer to paper.  Once they prefer it, it is a fait accompli, because
information flows along the path of least resistance.  Facilitated by a new
format, new genres will emerge that we can't even imagine.

Within five years, librarians will stop licensing databases that don't have
full text or links to full text (or is this simply my wish)

Authentication tools--I also believe Tom is right; we will continue kludging
along for a while.

The definition of a "skilled librarian" will be in great flux.  The last
librarians of the pre-electronic era will retire, and "Internet librarian"
will become to all intents and purposes a redundant expression.

Karen G. Schneider kgs at bluehighways.com
Assistant Director of Technology
Shenendehowa Public Library, Clifton Park, NY
http://www.shenpublib.org