Why we won't be here in 20 years

[Edward Wigg]

At 11:44 PM 2/17/97 -0800, Joe Schallan <jschall at glenpub.lib.az.us> wrote:
>Why we won't be here in 20 years....
<snip>
>
>Here's my concern.  When libraries go to the voters with bond
>issues, the libraries usually win because of the good will of the
>voters.  The voters feel good about public libraries and are
>usually willing to oblige.  Most do not know the library well, nor
>have they studied the particulars of the issue at hand.  If 
>economic times are good in the community, then voters, who
>feel good if not enthusiastic about their library, are happy to
>vote the requested funds.
>
>But what if we are suddenly perceived as irrelevant?  Marginalized?
>Of no more importance to civic and educational concerns than the
>local historical society museum?  Won't the voters say "We can get
>all this on the net . . . why spend tax dollars on a library?"....
<snip>

You make some good points, but I think you fall into the trap of
extrapolating current trends too far into the future. At the moment more and
more people are beginning to use the Net as a way of finding information and
like most people they have no idea whether or not the library might be a
better place to find the same information, in addition the trend in the cost
of connections is to wards flat rate fees. BUT there is no real reason to
presume that these trends will continue indefinitely. 

As more information is put on the Net, any given part of it will become
harder to find, in not too long Alta Vista just won't cut it anymore: if you
get two million hits for a search, and nothing very relevant in the first
few hundred, casual users will not find it so easy. Even with improvements
in indexing and searching I'm fairly certain that the signal to noise ratio
will get much worse for the average user. There is also a trend to push
technologies where the net becomes in effect just another broadcast medium;
as that occurs people will stop using the Net like a vast encyclopedia and
start thinking of it like a smart TV. They don't expect to use their TV for
research, even if they can find the same weather information on the Weather
Channel that they get from the Net, and my guess is that most viewers/users
will not stray too far from the easy (i.e. what the advertisers want them to
see) in search of information, even if it is possible. 

Plain Net connections will probably remain nominally flat rate, but you can
expect to see usage charges creeping in one way or another. The phone
companies already want to start charging you by the minute for data
connections (in addition to what ISPs charge), and though they might loose
this time, it is probable that they will eventually find a way to grab a
larger piece of the pie. It also seems likely that as network traffic
increases there will be some form of charge for the amount of data that
crosses the net, rather than the current charge for bandwidth, used or not.
Microsoft is rumored to be working on ways of charging for all their web
server licenses based on the number of connections made, a sort of ticking
meter -- if they succeed in pulling it off and if others follow you can
expect the amount of free, useful information to decline.

All of this, and various other factors that I have left out or that are not
yet apparent, suggest that the Web as we know it will not be around in
twenty years.  This is not necessarily good for libraries; we know the world
of information is changing and, though books will never go away, libraries
must change with it or wither. We will obviously have to convince the world
of our continuing value, but then that has always, and will always be necessary.

The danger lies in expending our energy and resources fighting yesterday's
battles. Unless you are facing a bond issue in the relatively near future,
it is much more important to worry about ways of improving library service
and fitting it in with the best and most useful emerging technologies and
trends than it is to worry about the public relations battle for the minds
of readers of Ann and Abby. We should concern ourselves more with the
leading edge of public opinion than its trailing edge, and satisfied library
users are our best publicity. So while we should never stop educating and
trying to reach those who find us irrelevant we should not do so to the
detriment of the service that keeps us truly relevant.

Edward
--------------------------------------------------------------
Edward Wigg                      "Just another guy, you know?"
Evanston Public Library             e-wigg at evanston.lib.il.us
Evanston, Illinois