I have seen the future of the Web...

[C. W. Tazewell]

On Fri, 17 Nov 1995, Roy Tennant wrote:

> and it's name is Java. After attending "Java Day" at Sun Microsystems 
> last week, and seeing what folks are doing with this programming language 
> for the Web, I am certain that it will transform our use of the Web.
> 
Hey, Guys and Gals,
     I can't resist passing this info along about the "PC Becoming 
Passe."  Put these two together and you have the future of The Internet - 
and Libraries (see below).
                            Bill.

        The Virtual Library is *THE REASON* to have the Internet!
                       Your Internet WWW HOTLIST!
                          Don't hunt the Web -
               It's on the Virtual Library of Hampton Roads.
                   Set it up as your Netscape Home Page:
                        http://wwwp.exis.net/~cwt/
 
     
                         IS THE PC BECOMING PASSE?
     
          "The personal computer is a ridiculous device," opined Larry
     Ellison, CEO of the guard database software company Oracle, at a
     recent computer conference in Paris.
          Consumers bought 12 million of these ridiculous devices last
     year, and the figure for this year is expected to be even higher. 
     But Ellison has a point - a self-serving point, but a point
     nevertheless.
          Most home computer users don't understand that the machine
     they bought and struggled to learn could run a medium-size hotel
     or a small hospital.  Personal computers have become so powerful
     that they are verging on the ridiculous, especially given the
     tasks most users ask them to perform.
          Ellison and others are now promising what they call
     "network-centric" computing, as opposed to individual, personal
     computing on a desktop.  In some ways, it's a throwback to the
     pre-PC model of computing, in which "dumb" terminals depended on
     large, centralized mainframes for storage and processing power.
          But the mainframe of today is the ever-expanding, ever more
     versatile Internet.
          Already, access to the Internet is the reason that many
     people with little interest in number crunching or database
     management are buying personal computers.  But the growing power
     of the Internet, along with the rise of the easy-to-use graphical
     portion known as the World Wide Web, actually decreases the need
     for users to have a powerful PC that can do everything and
     anything.
          Instead, consumers might soon buy cheaper, simpler devices
     designed to optimize access to the Net.  Ben Schneiderman, a
     computer scientist at the University of Maryland, has proposed a
     product he calls a "webtop" - a small box about the size of a
     magazine, with nothing but a color screen and a pointing device
     but with a high-speed, perhaps wireless, connection to the
     Internet.  To enter text, the user could call up a "virtual
     keyboard" on the screen, Schneiderman says.  He thinks a webtop
     could sell for between $100 and $300.
          This is not just theory.  Just a month ago Sun Microsystems
     executives held a news conference to announce their intention to
     develop cheap network access devices that can use Sun's new
     network programming language, Java.  Java allows users to
     download programs from the Internet that perform specific
     functions and then disappear from the user's computer.  Sun CEO
     Scott McNealy said there has been more interest in Java than in
     any Sun product in the company's 12-year history - without any
     advertising.
          McNealy agrees that the future networking device could be
     sold for a few hundred dollars.  And Sun isn't the only company
     looking in this direction.  Researchers at Xerox PARC in Palo
     Alto have developed a hand-held, palm-size device called PARCTab,
     which accesses the Net through infrared connections.
          What could make a decisive difference in the coming tug of
     war between desktop computing & network-centric computing is the
     speed of the Internet in the future.  In the September issue of
     Scientific American, Vincent Chan of MIT's Lincoln Laboratory
     describes the potential speed of an all-optical network: 100
     gigabits a second, more than 2,000 times faster than what today's
     fastest networks can manage.
          As Chan notes, such speed will open up immense
     possibilities.  He speculates on the potential for a home
     videographer to plug his camera into a network connection in the
     wall and broadcast directly to relatives across the country, in
     real time.  And with high-speed connections to the Net, users of
     a webtop could "rent" software on remote machines, use the
     processing power of fast computers, lease storage space and get
     near-instantaneous access to data anywhere in the world.
          Even the company that has to most to lose from the
     PC-centric computing model of today - Microsoft Corp. - appears
     to be alert to the new possibilities.  It is Microsoft that has
     nurtured and profited immensely from the feedback loop between PC
     power and software, in which memory-hogging, feature-laden
     software requires more and more powerful machines and bigger hard
     disks, which in turn encourages more memory-hogging software.
          Yet Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates and his former partner,
     Paul Allen, admit in the October issue of Fortune magazine that
     the Internet could change everything.
          "The Internet is a seed corn of a lot of things that are
     going to happen, and there are so many parallels to when Paul and
     I were involved in the beginnings of the PC," says Gates.  "We
     said back then, `Don't DEC and IBM know they're in deep trouble?' 
     Here we are, staring at the same kind of situation."
          Even if network-centric computing takes off, desktop
     computers aren't going to disappear.  They'll still be useful for
     developing content for the Net, and they are increasingly used as
     network servers, even by so-called kitchen-table entrepreneurs. 
     But if the new model gains prominence, PC manufacturers will have
     to switch to producing high-volume, low-margin consumer devices
     for accessing the Net, things that will look more like a
     telephone, an Etch-a-Sketch or a pager than the PCs of today.
          The biggest obstacle to this transition may be
     psychological.  Many people simply like to keep their data and do
     their work on their own machines, and they might be reluctant to
     trust a network connection or the reliability of someone else's
     computer.  This is a subjective question at this point, but the
     answer could determine the fate of companies and fortunes in the
     near future.
     
     By Gary Chapman in _Computer Connections_, November 1995, p. 38,
     40 (Los Angeles Times Syndicate)
     
     Gary Chapman is coordinator of the 21st Century Project at the
     LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at
     Austin.  (email gary.chapman at mail.utexas.edu)
     
And, if you are still with me:

                The Virtual Library and The Future

     It's less than five years to the year 2000.  The Information
Superhighway is developing rapidly.  It's time now to get ready to
get a piece of the action.
     In (or before) 2000 there will be fiber optic cable to many 
businesses and homes.  One channel will be the Virtual Library - a  
24-hour Internet WWW Channel.  This will be a primary source of 
multimedia data, news, information and services of all kinds.
     The Virtual Library will be a 2-way window to the world.  It will
bring in material from all parts of the planet.  But, importantly, it
will furnish the local info to the rest of the world.  It will be the
main source for disseminating this local info.  This local data must
be in a central place so it will be readily available to the rest of
the globe.
     There is a need for setting up pilot projects leading towards the 
24-hour fiber-optic virtual library concept.  The Virtual Library of
Hampton Roads is a prototype of the 21st-century Virtual Library.
     The ultimate result must be convenient and easy to use.  The WWW has 
tremenduous possibilities, but needs a dedicated and knowledgeable person 
to use it effectively.  The average person doesn't have the time, 
patience, or interest to become an expert Web Surfer.  The Internet needs
to be as much as possible like the present TV remote control - 
point, click and go.  The Virtual Library is the answer.  Check it out.
     Soon the Internet and other online services will be part of the 
entertainment, work or study center, which will include complete 
integration of the present TV, stereo, VCR, telephone, etc.  These will
all work thru the microcomputer.
     More and more people are adapting to the graphical concept of 
learning.  This is because of the use and influence of television and 
video games.  Young people will readily adapt to the multimedia
presentations on the Internet.  This is very different from reading and 
books.  Reading and books will still have an important place, but may 
become secondary.  It is like the changes made by radio, televison,
cable, etc.  We still have radio along with television.
     As any new concept is utilized, the others may remain in a different
and secondary role.  Humans learned from visual observation for millions 
of years before books and reading.
     Librarians will be very important.  They will assist with reference 
questions and problems.  They will search, organize and present (SOP) 
for the virtual libraries.  They will become more and more information 
specialists.  How about a branch (virtual) library in a kiosk in the
mall?
     For more about Virtual Libraries, visit the Professional Librarians' 
Section.  Use the Staff Entrance over by the soda machines and restrooms.
URL http://www.infi.net/~cwt/intro.html
     We've got a lot of work to do.  Shall we start?