It has to be fresh!

[Masters, Gary E]

I have been watching the Napster and MP3 discussion for some time and never
could quite put my finger on a thought until this week.  There was a great
story in Analog in the 60's that illustrated the point.  It was about matter
duplicators and how the world would cope with them.  As most of the earlier
stories about matter duplicators began there was a department store and
looters were intent to take what they could.  Money was worthless.  The
manager, however, saw this as an opportunity.  In a discussion on why they
would still have a place in the brave new world, the point was made that
frozen Mexican dinners would sell well for a few weeks and then not sell
until the recipe  was changed.  The "hero" was a store manager and quickly
organized everyone to sell on credit to those who were intent on looting.
The idea was that even with unlimited matter duplication, people would be
drawn to what was new and different and Fresh. Perhaps there would be an end
to poverty or need, but not to wants.   (If anyone wants to look it up I
think it was around 1963 and perhaps Randall Garret was the author.)

So, perhaps the same will apply to recorded music and popular culture items.
In video there is pretty much an open market for older films that have been
broadcast.  One can videotape and even share these without too much of a
problem.  The real controls are the newer films which have a progression to
pay per view, cable and eventually broadcast.  One can imagine a tolerated
distribution of older films and music if it were "controlled."   If this
were combined with an easy way for small payments to be collected for newer
songs and films, it could be much like software and video tapes.  With such
a low distribution cost, profits could be made at a few cents per song.  I
have no reason to copy a video tape when I can buy one for not much more
than a blank tape.  Now digital media does retain quality over copies as
videotape does not, but most want to be legal if there is an easy way to do
so.  As long as the media companies have control of what is new and fresh,
they should not be concerned overmuch with a fringe of free copies.  In the
long run it might even help profits.  I had rather buy a new software
because it is my policy to be legal and because I want the manuals and help
from the vendor.



Now if the artist do their own distribution, that is another problem (or
story).





Gary Masters