Why we won't be here in 20 years

[Stefan Stackhouse - BRIDGE]

Hello from someone who up to now has just been lurking and following 
this thread.

A historical perspective:

There was a time when the only place where one could access a bible 
was in a church or monastary.  Not that it made much difference -- 
most folks couldn't read it anyway.  Then the printing press came 
along, and pretty soon everyone had bibles in their own homes.  That 
didn't spell the end of churches, but considering the impact of the 
reformation and counter-reformation, churches clearly evolved into 
something much different from what they used to be.  There were 
profound changes in other aspects of public and private life as well.

There was a time when at most a household might have just one printed 
book -- the bible.  If they were lucky they might know someone or 
someplace where they could consult or borrow a few other books, but 
those were the exceptions.  Mostly, one learned and communicated 
through oral instruction and memorization. Gradually, books became 
more available and widespread through the growth of printing, libraries, 
and the publishing and bookselling business.  Interestingly, the growth 
of libraries and the growth of privately-owned books does not appear 
to have been mutually competitive trends -- rather, they seem if 
anything to have reinforced one another.  Interestingly, we still do 
a lot of learning and communication through oral formats, and 
memorization has not become obsolete.  Yet, education, commerce, and 
public and private life in general have changed signifantly from the 
earlier times.

There was a time when the only books published were hard-bound.  They 
were expensive, and only the rich could afford to buy more than a 
few.  Then the paperback came along, and books became much more 
affordable and widespread.  However, hard-bound books continue to be 
published and purchased in large numbers.

There was a time when whatever information a person obtained was 
almost exclusively in printed form -- letters, newspapers, magazines, 
and books.  Then, in rapid succession, the telegraph, telephone, 
phonograph, radio, television, and computer have changed all that.  
However, the postal service continues to deliver more mail than ever.
Newspapers continue to be published, and despite a reduction in 
titles through consolidation, total circulation and readership 
remains pretty healthy.  There are more magazines and books published 
than ever before.  None of these new electronic technologies have 
really replaced print media, nor even (with the possible exception 
of the telegraph), each other.  However, the world is obviously 
becoming a different place than it used to be.

Possible conclusions to be drawn from historical perspective:

Technology does change, the communication of information does become 
faster, cheaper, and more accessable to everyone, and this drives 
profound changes in human institutions and daily life.  However, 
rarely do these technological changes make previous modes of 
information storage and communication obsolete.  Rather, they build 
a new layer over what has been developed previously.

Thus, it is likely that there will continue to be print media -- 
books, newspapers, and magazines -- for a long time to come.  There 
will continue to be a need for places which collect, manage, and make 
these available to people, i.e., libraries.  And there will continue 
to be a need for people to manage these collections and assist these 
patrons, i.e. librarians.

However, it is quite likely that libraries and librarianship will be 
transformed at least as much as the church & clergy were during the 
reformation/counter-reformation.  We will probably be transformed 
even more.

We will still be around in 20 years, and even in 200 years.  But 
librarianship and libraries will look much different than they do today.

FWIW,

Stefan Stackhouse
Education Services Librarian
Mtn. Area Health Education Center, Asheville NC
stefans at shamu.mtn.ncahec.org

opinions are my own, not my employer's